New Delhi
The recent victory of the BJP in the Assembly elections in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan and the Congress in Telangana, has given enough indications of a north vs south “political divide”.
In Karnataka, the ruling BJP government was ousted by the Congress in the Assembly polls held in May this year. While the DMK is the ruling party in Tamil Nadu, the CPI (M) rules in Kerala and YSR Congress led by Jaganmohan Reddy is at the helm in Andhra Pradesh.
Except Congress no other political party can be labelled as a pan India party in the southern states. There is a remote possibility that BJP capturing any of the southern states in the near future as regional parties are very strong in these states.
The 28-party Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) formed recently to jointly fight the elections to counter the BJP has failed to take off as the Congress party refused to accommodate alliance partners in the Assembly polls held for the five States, including Mizoram.
Assembly polls are due in Andhra Pradesh in 2024 and 2026 in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. In this scenario, if the BJP fails to make any headway in the south, the north vs south political divide will only widen.
Controversial statements from Udhyanidhi Stalin, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin’s son, on Sanatana Dharma clearly affected the Congress party in the three north Indian states where the BJP won handsomely.
In September participating in the Sanatana Dharma eradication conference, Udhayanidhi Stalin called for abolition of Sanatana Dharma, equating it with diseases like “dengue, malaria and covid-19”.
This statement was fully exploited by the BJP in the recent elections. In the poll rallies, Prime Minister Narendra Modi targeted the Congress party for its silence on its alliance partner’s outburst against Sanatana Dharma.
Home Minister Amit Shah and other BJP leaders were able to polarise Hindu voters towards the BJP. The Congress realized that the DMK leaders, including A. Raja, Member of Parliament had hurt the prospects of the Congress candidates who were unable to counter the charges levelled by the BJP.
But in Tamil Nadu, the DMK refused to take responsibility for the defeat of Congress in the three states. Its leaders maintained that the DMK had its roots in self-respect movement launched by Periyar (E.V. Ramaswamy, founder of the Dravidar Kazhagam).
The DMK argued that Udhayanidhi Stalin did not say anything that Dr. B.R. Ambedkar has not already said, viz annihilation of caste. Sanatana Dharma relates to casteism in society which must be eradicated.
However, in Tamil Nadu, Udhayanidhi Stalin’s statement did not evoke any protest as his words have roots in the state’s historical and political narrative.
Justifying his remarks, Udhayanidhi said: “An innocuous statement has been blown out of proportions and my name resonates everywhere in the Hindi heartland.”
In the north, both Hinduism as a way of life and Hindutva are construed as Sanatana Dharma.
As a result, the BJP was able to accuse the Congress of insulting Sanatana Dharma for its vote bank and appeasement politics.
Amit Shah declared that INDIA bloc “hates Hinduism” and it is an attack on our heritage. This narrative worked to BJP’s advantage in the three states and the Congress was unable to counter this narrative.
The BSP and the Samajwadi Party, who are in the INDIA bloc, blamed the DMK for the defeat of the Congress and issued statements asking the DMK not to speak against Hinduism.
Adding fuel to fire, DMK MP from Lok Sabha, D.N.V. Senthilkumar, wondered why BJP could win elections in the heartland of states of Hindi and what we generally call ‘gaumutra (cow urine) states.’
Participating in a debate in Lok Sabha on December 5, he said: “You (the BJP) cannot come to south India. You see all the results of what happens in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka… we are very strong over there.”
His remarks coming within few days of the BJP’s thumping victory in Hindi heartland received widespread condemnation and even Congress leaders distanced themselves from the DMK.
Later floor leader T.R. Baalu said Senthilkumar was reprimanded by DMK leader M.K. Stalin.
Senthilkumar apologized for his remarks saying “I have used a word in an inappropriate way. Not using that term with any intent, I apologise for sending the wrong meaning.”
Speaking in Parliament on December 11, another DMK MP Mohamed Abdullah described the Supreme Court’s verdict upholding abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution, as an attack on federalism.
Quoting Periyar, he said, the people of Jammu and Kashmir must have freedom of self-determination. His remarks were expunged by Rajya Sabha Chairman and the Congress distanced itself from the MP’s remarks.
The INDIA bloc is going to face Lok Sabha polls in 2024 at a time when there is no palpable anti-incumbency wave against the Modi government. The win in three Assembly elections has given the BJP a slight advantage.
The BJP’s poll plank for 2024 is going to be Hindutva, full integration of Jammu and Kashmir by abrogating Article 370 of the Constitution and construction of Ram temple in Ayodhya (to be consecrated on January 22, 2024).
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s candidature as a prime ministerial candidate for 2024 is likely to run into opposition from within the alliance partners with TMC chief Mamta Banerjee possibly throwing her hat into the ring.
Without a suitable leader to face Modi and no clear-cut policies to counter the BJP, it will be a formidable challenge for the India bloc to reduce the ruling party’s stranglehold over the polity.
If the INDIA alliance has to succeed, a different strategy and post-poll vision is needed. Seeking caste census and minority appeasement will not work to win elections and the north vs south divide will be further solidified if BJP comes back to power in 2024.
